Brian is a person I respect and his information is generally well researched and presented. Brian posted this earlier this month and I know that many people are wondering about where our local market might be going... it is worth the read...
By Brian Madigan LL.B.
(Ontario Real Estate Source)
Where's the Toronto Market Going?
If past years are any indication of the future, then we may be able to make some reasonable predictions.
This year has been quite predictable. The market peaked 15 May 2010, and has been in decline ever since.
July and August are likely to show poorer numbers. This is the summer doldrums. It happens every year, and this year, it has nothing to do with the HST.
In September, the market should start to pick up and turn upwards.
The market will continue to rise through to the end of October. The final numbers in October are likely to match the earlier highs that we saw in May. So, that means that there is a little more room for the market to grow.
The market is likely to settle down somewhat in November, and decline a bit in December. The reason I say this, is that it happens most years.
Now, I do have to qualify that by saying "all things being equal". Actually, I don't have any idea what that really means, but I still need some kind of a qualifier here.
Let's assume that there is no major market meltdown. The worldwide stock exchanges don't lose half their values. Let's also assume that banks generally don't fail. And, insurance companies too! As well, as the major manufacturers.
Assuming those things, and that we have a normal market, then the average price of a single family home should rise to $446,593 by the end of October. While it will lose some ground, that number should reappear once again in February 2011.
The year started out at $411,093. A $446,593 figure should it hold would provide $35,500 in increased value. That would be an 8.64% return over the year. The end of the year, or 31st of December results could easily be 1% off that figure for about a 7.5% annual return. That's better than most years.
Brian Madigan LL.B., Broker is an author and commentator on real estate matters, if you are interested in residential or commercial properties in Mississauga, Toronto or the GTA, you may contact him through Royal LePage Innovators Realty, Brokerage 905-796-8888
Chris Smith CSSBB
Chay Realty Inc., Brokerage